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Braves seek to bounce back in second test with PiratesBaseball Betting Lines09/07/2010 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Atlanta's offense has been mostly shut down during its current stretch of four losses in five games. That is exactly what starter Tim Hudson has done to Pittsburgh over the last few years, though. Hudson looks to extend a run of 22 consecutive innings of not allowing an earned run versus the Pirates, who continue a three-game set with the struggling Braves tonight at PNC Park. Atlanta has been held to a pair of runs or less in each of its last four losses and is just 8-10 since Aug. 19. Those struggles have allowed Philadelphia to close within a half-game of the first-place Braves in the National League East. The club should be glad to have Hudson, who hasn't allowed an earned run versus the Pirates since Aug. 23, 2006. He has won each of last three starts against them, including a May 21 outing in which he threw eight shutout innings and worked around three hits and four walks to improve to 5-3 with a 2.45 earned run average lifetime versus Pittsburgh. The 35-year-old is coming off his first loss since July 17, as he had a six- decision win streak end on Thursday versus the Mets after allowing four runs -- three earned -- over seven innings. He dipped to 15-6 on the season, and his 2.30 ERA is tied for second-best in the NL. The right-handed Hudson is also 5-2 with a 2.71 ERA in 13 road starts and hasn't lost as the guest pitcher since June 23. Atlanta will try to supply its hurler with more offense than it managed last night, when David Ross plated the Braves' only run with a sacrifice fly. Derrek Lee added two hits and scored that run on his 35th birthday, while starting pitcher Tommy Hanson allowed three runs -- two earned -- in six innings to take the loss. "We had some hits and we had some runners," said Atlanta manager Bobby Cox after his club left 10 men on base and went 0-for-6 with runners in scoring position. "We just didn't get the big hit to get back in the game. We thought we were going to get it just about every inning, but it never happened." Neil Walker paced the Pirates with a two-run homer, his fifth long ball on a 13-game hitting streak in which he is hitting .404 (23-for-57) with 16 RBI. Jose Tabata added an RBI and scored a run for the Pirates, who had lost seven of nine overall before the game and picked up just their second victory in seven meetings with the Braves this year. Atlanta has still own eight of the last 12 overall in the series. Stepping in for an injured Jeff Karstens (shoulder), Brian Burres gave up one run over six innings for Pittsburgh, working around five hits without a walk. "I can't say enough of the job he did out there today," said Pirates manager John Russell about Burres after the game. "He kept us in the game. We knew coming in facing the three pitchers we're going to face that it's going to be tough and he did a great job for us." James McDonald tries to put the brakes on a three-start slide this evening for Pittsburgh, a skid in which he has pitched to a 7.71 ERA. The right-hander was charged with three runs over five innings in a loss to the Cubs on Wednesday, falling to 2-4 with a 5.03 ERA in six starts since being acquired from the Los Angeles Dodgers. McDonald, 25, will be making his first career start versus the Braves but has faced them twice in relief, striking out five over four scoreless innings.
<< Giants eye first place as they continue series in Arizona
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) -Runs were hard to come by in Monday's opener of a three- game series between the San Francisco Giants and Arizona Diamondbacks, and another pitcher's duel could be in the works when the two National League West foes square off
<< Hard-charging Phils continue key series with Marlins
<< Skidding Rangers resume set at Toronto
<< Rays try again to snap slide against Red Sox
<< White Sox send Garcia to mound in Detroit
Padres try to string back-to-back wins together against LA >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - After finally being able to end a potentially-costly 10- game skid on Monday, the San Diego Padres will try to start up a winning streak behind their best pitcher when the National League West leaders resume a three-game seri
Rockies hope to stay hot versus Reds >>
Week One Highlights >>
Lohse hoping to pitch Cardinals past Brewers >>
Rookies to go head-to-head in Mets-Nationals clash >>
How to bet pro footballThere is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB. These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon. Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality. Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on. Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain. Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top. The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap? To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense. Home vs. Away Teams Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player. Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week. Price ranges Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time. The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons. Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1. Playoff teams It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time. Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them. This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999. Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games. Scoring defense and scoring offense Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1. Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period. There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1. The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail. Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road. Scoring margin An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team. In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season. Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers. In sum Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap. The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits. To visit this sportsbook got to MySportsbook.com for all your Sportsbook accepts Visa needs. Anybody who knows about online sports betting knows MySportsbook.com! They are probably the most famous offshore sports gambling website located on the web! After nearly 10 years of online sportsbook service, MySportsbook.com is still impressing their visitors with great customer service, live odds, fast payouts, and an easy-to-use website. MySportsbook.com has everything that die-hard sports fans want. For those looking to bet on all major sporting events, look no further. Make MySportsbook.com your one-stop shop for NFL football, college football, baseball, baseketball, boxing, and horseracing. MySportsbook.com has one distinct advantage over all other online sportsbooks: They have been in the football gambling industry the longest and have served the most satisfied customers. So if you're in the market for a new online sportsbook for the next upcoming season, be sure to check out MySportsbook.com today! We are absolutely positive that you will not be disappointed with this company. To visit this online sportsbook got to MySportsbook.com for all your football betting lines needs. |
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