Basketball Betting

Gaming: The Pac-10 keeps its streak alive

NCAA Football Betting Lines

08/10/2010 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Not many betting angles stand the test of time, but the Pac-10 has one to definitely keep an eye on.

The league has now posted 10 straight seasons of above .500 ATS records in non-conference play, with an overall winning percentage of 55%. That number won't make you rich, but it certainly won't put you in the red either.

Some other notable trends to watch for this season involve USC. The Trojans are just 12-22-1 as conference favorites over the last four years while covering only one of their last nine on the road.

Stanford, with its ATS win over USC last season, is now 5-1 ATS versus the Trojans since '04, while Washington, Arizona and Oregon State have also dominated Southern California over the last five seasons with a combined 13-2 ATS mark.

Washington, despite its ATS dominance over USC, still has trouble with Arizona State, Oregon and Stanford. The Huskies have not covered a game against the Sun Devils since '01 and the Ducks since '03. Meanwhile, Stanford owns Steve Sarkisian's team with a 5-1 ATS record the last six meetings.

Time now to take a team-by-team look at the league with predicted SU overall and conference records for those wagering on over/under for total victories.

10) WASHINGTON STATE - The Cougars were 5-7 ATS last season, 0-4 in their final four games. They are 6-12 ATS in conference play over the last two years.

Offense - The Cougars offense ranked next-to-last nationally in scoring (12 ppg) and total offense (249 ypg) in '09. In fact, they scored half as many points in just one overtime session (3) as they did in first quarter play throughout the entire season (6). Injuries crippled them for most of the year so if the offense can stay healthy, don't be shocked if Washington State hovers close to the 20 ppg mark in 2010.

Defense - Injuries also plagued the defense as one-half of the line was lost after Week 2, while two secondary starters were gone by the midway point of the season. On the bright side, the unit gave up 39.7 ppg in league play after allowing over 50 ppg the year before.

Prediction - It is doubtful the Cougars will win more than one or two games, but they should be more competitive. Look for an above .500 ATS record. (1-11, 0-9)

9) ARIZONA STATE - The Sun Devils went 6-5 ATS last season while finishing 9-2 to the under. They are 9-5 ATS as home favorites over the last three years.

Offense - Head coach Dennis Erickson hired a new offensive coordinator after the team averaged only 18 ppg in Pac-10 play. Noel Mazzone brings in a high- tempo offensive game plan with more emphasis on the pass. Unfortunately, the new schemes failed in the spring with just one touchdown pass and five interceptions.

Defense - Arizona State led the league in both rushing and passing defense, but seven starters have departed, including six of the top eight tacklers. If the offense falls flat, look for the defense to be on the field a lot more than last year's 775 total plays.

Prediction - The only thing that saved the Sun Devils last year was their defense. That will not be the case in 2010. Bet against them over the first half of the season. (4-8, 2-7)

8) UCLA - The Bruins finished 7-6 ATS in '09. They are 27-11 ATS in their last 38 home games and 22-9 ATS in their last 31 contests off a SU loss.

Offense - Quarterback Kevin Prince still has a lot of improving to do after completing just 48% of his passes for a grand total of 392 yards against Arizona, Arizona State, USC and Oregon. If he picks up his play in his sophomore campaign, the offense is capable of doing some damage.

Defense - For as well as the defense played last season, opposing league rushers averaged 4.7 ypc and quarterbacks completed 63% of their passes. The front seven brings in five new starters meaning the Bruins will allow a much higher point total than the 21 ppg given up in '09.

Prediction - UCLA will suffer growing pains in preparation for what should be a much better season a year from now. Save your money for 2011. (4-8, 3-6)

7) CALIFORNIA - The Golden Bears went 5-7 ATS last season. They are 3-9 ATS as road favorites since '07.

Offense - This side of the ball was the problem area for California as the club finished seventh in league play averaging just 22.8 ppg. Time of possession is usually not a meaningful statistic in football but it was for the Bears as they were 5-0 SU when leading in that category and 3-5 when behind. With an improved line, look for the offense to pick up, especially with running back Shane Vereen leading the way.

Defense - After allowing 21 points or more in only four games two seasons ago, the defense allowed three touchdowns or greater in nine of last year's 13 contests. Five of the top seven tacklers have departed so don't expect any miracles in Berkeley.

Prediction - The Bears have garnered better ATS records (compared to the previous season) in three of the last four even-numbered years. (7-5, 4-5)

6) WASHINGTON - The Huskies ended up 7-5 ATS in '09. They were 5-4 ATS in conference play after going 3-15 the previous two years combined.

Offense - In last year's preview, I predicted the Huskies would have the most improved offense in the country. They came close, finishing fourth behind Auburn, Arkansas and Idaho. With 10 starters back, they'll hit the 30 ppg mark for the first time since '02.

Defense - Defensive coordinator Nick Holt brought respectability back to the Huskies defense but there is still room to grow. The only question mark is at defensive end where Daniel Te'o-Nesheim, the school's all-time sack leader, needs to be replaced.

Prediction - Washington improved from 0-5 ATS on the road in '08 to 2-3 last season. Look for the Huskies to top the .500 mark in 2010. (7-5, 5-4)

5) USC - The Trojans were 4-9 ATS last season, their worst mark since 2000. They are 3-9 as road favorites over the last two years.

Offense - USC ranked sixth in scoring and seventh in total offense in Pac-10 play last year and that was with nine returning starters. Only five return this season. Still, this unit can't be as bad as it was a season ago so expect a slight bump in production.

Defense - This was the area that troubled the USC faithful last year. The Trojans gave up a combined 110 points to Notre Dame, Oregon State and Oregon, the most points allowed in a three-week stretch in school history. And that doesn't even include the 55 points Stanford threw at them. With the entire secondary needing to be replaced, don't expect a reversal of form.

Prediction - Since the public still loves to bet the Trojans, another sub .500 ATS record could be in the cards. (9-4, 5-4)

4) ARIZONA - The Wildcats went 6-6 ATS last season. They are 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 games as home underdogs.

Offense - Last year's offensive output diminished from 36.6 ppg to 27.4, partly due to finishing tied for 97th inside the red zone after ranking sixth nationally two seasons ago. With a bump up in that category, Arizona will improve its scoring average in quarterback Nick Foles' junior season.

Defense - Seven starters need to be replaced from a unit that ranked second in the conference in total defense. Changes have already been made as two new defensive coordinators replace Mark Stoops. Look for a lot of different looks, including more nickel and dime packages, along with three or four defensive ends on the field at the same time.

Prediction - Arizona is 10-2 ATS at home over the last two years. Keep that in mind as the Wildcats play four of their first five games in Tucson. (7-5, 5-4)

3) STANFORD - The Cardinal finished 8-5 ATS last year, going 7-1 to the over in its final eight games. The club is 14-5 ATS as a home favorite over the last eight years.

Offense - Without running back Toby Gerhart, sophomore quarterback Andrew Luck must improve in a hurry after completing only 56% of his throws last season. He does have one of the most underrated offensive lines in front of him, as well as last year's three leading receivers. However, the team's point per game average will take a hit from 35.5 down to around 28 ppg.

Defense - The defense regressed slightly last season allowing 23 more yards per game so head coach Jim Harbaugh hired Vic Fangio, who immediately changed the "D" to a 3-4 set. Five of last year's top seven tacklers return so look for improved numbers in 2010.

Prediction - Expectations are high after last year's 8-4 regular season record so the public might back Stanford more than warranted. (8-4, 6-3)

2) OREGON STATE - The Beavers finished 7-5 ATS in '09, but covered four of their final five games. They are 6-1 as road underdogs over the last two years

Offense - The offense has been extremely consistent over the last 12 years averaging between 26 and 33 ppg (31.5 in '09). This season will be no different even with a new starting quarterback. Still, a slight drop off is expected since it's doubtful the Beavers will lead the country in red zone efficiency for a second straight year.

Defense - Oregon State returns seven starters on defense, a major upgrade after bringing back just three in each of the last two seasons. This defense has a chance to dominate as the '07 unit did when it led Pac-10 play in both ypc allowed and opposing quarterback completion percentage.

Prediction - Keep in mind, the Beavers are 2-7 ATS in the first three games over the last three years combined. They are 22-6 ATS thereafter. (8-4, 7-2)

1) OREGON - The Ducks were 7-6 ATS last season. They are 36-24 ATS in league play over the last seven years.

Offense - Jeremiah Masoli is off to Ole Miss, but don't expect the offense to suffer with either Nate Costa or Darron Thomas leading the way. In fact, it could be even more dynamic with the addition of a decent passing game. Don't forget, the Ducks converted just 37% on third downs the last two years combined with Masoli at the helm, compared to 44% between '05 and '07.

Defense - Oregon led the Pac-10 in yards allowed per play at 4.6. The defense was also number one inside the conference against both the run and pass. Look for more of the same this season with nine of the top 10 tacklers back in Eugene.

Prediction - The Ducks are the most complete team in the league. They will also improve on last season's 7-6 ATS record. (11-1, 8-1)