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Sabathia goes for 20th win vs. O's in the BronxBaseball Betting Lines09/07/2010 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - CC Sabathia tries to win 20 games for the first time in his career this evening when the New York Yankees continue their three-game series with the Baltimore Orioles at Yankee Stadium. Sabathia won his sixth straight start and for the 15th time in his last 17 decisions with a sensational effort against Oakland on Thursday, as he allowed just one hit in eight scoreless innings to run his record to 19-5, while lowering his earned run average to 3.02. He also won 19 games in 2007 as well as last season. The left-hander, who leads the majors in wins. also improved to 11-0 in 14 home starts this season and has now won his last 16 decisions in the Bronx dating back to 2009 and has tied Whitey Ford's franchise record by making 21 straight home starts without a loss. "It makes it easier not to think about because we're trying to win a division. Every game's important," said Sabathia. "I think it'd be cool, but it's still the middle of the season. It's tough to think about personal accomplishments when we're trying to win a division. I'll go out and do my part to try to help the team win." Sabathia should have no problem getting that milestone win tonight, as he is victorious in his last eight starts against the Orioles and is an incredible 13-1 lifetime against them with a 2.59 ERA in 18 starts. Sabathia will be trying to get the Yankees back in the win column after they lost the opener of this set on Monday, as Brian Roberts' seventh inning single drove in the winning run and lifted Baltimore to a 4-3 win. Roberts finished 3-for-5 with two RBI while Matt Wieters knocked in a run and walked twice for the Orioles, who won their third straight. Brian Matusz (8-12) picked up the win after allowing three runs on five hits with a pair of walks and four strikeouts over six innings, and Koji Uehara sewed up the victory by retiring the side in order in the ninth to earn his seventh save for the Birds, who have won three straight against the top two teams in the division. "I felt good. I was throwing a lot of strikes," said Matusz. "I got behind in a couple of counts but I was able to make good pitches when I needed to. We got the clutch hits when we needed to and the bullpen was tremendous again. So it was a great overall team win." A.J. Burnett (10-13) was tagged with the loss after yielding all four runs on seven hits and four walks while fanning five over seven innings for New York, which remained 2 1/2 games ahead of Tampa Bay in the AL East. The Rays lost in Boston later Monday. Alex Rodriguez hit a solo home run in defeat for New York, his first since coming off the disabled list Sunday and the 605th of his career. He also set a major league record with his 14th season of driving in 100 or more runs. Getting the call for the Orioles tonight will be right-handed rookie Jake Arrieta, who is 4-6 with a 5.11 ERA. Arrieta did not get a decision last Wednesday against Boston, as he allowed three runs and six hits in five innings of a 9-6 loss. Arrieta beat the Yankees in his only other start against them. New York has won 10 of its 13 matchups with the O's this season and is 17-3 against them in the last 20 meetings in the Bronx.
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How to bet pro footballThere is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB. These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon. Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality. Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on. Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain. Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top. The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap? To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense. Home vs. Away Teams Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player. Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week. Price ranges Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time. The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons. Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1. Playoff teams It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time. Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them. This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999. Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games. Scoring defense and scoring offense Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1. Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period. There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1. The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail. Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road. Scoring margin An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team. In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season. Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers. In sum Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap. The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits. To visit this sportsbook got to MySportsbook.com for all your Sportsbook accepts Visa needs. Matt Kenseth And Kevin Harvick Favorites To Take NASCAR Nextel Cup Championship (September 15)—The NASCAR season has hit the homestretch with the opening event on this year’s Chase for the Cup taking place this weekend at the Sylvania 300 at New Hampshire International Speedway. With 10 races remaining to determine the Cup Series champion, leading online sportsbook MySportsbook.com today announced odds on all 10 Chase qualifying drivers capturing the NASCAR Sprint Cup Championship. One of the largest sportsbook sites on the Internet, MySportsbook.com currently lists the top two drivers in the point standings as the early favorites to win the Nextel Cup. Entering the Chase for the Cup with a slim five-point lead in the point standings, 2003 NASCAR champ Matt Kenseth has been made a slight favorite to win his second Cup at 7/2 betting odds. 2001 Cup Rookie of the Year Kevin Harvick has betting odds listed at 5/2 and four-time NASCAR champion Jeff Gordon is listed at 6/1 to capture the Nextel Cup this year. Hoping to follow in the footsteps of his legendary father who won six NASCAR titles, Dale Earnhardt Jr. stands at 8/1 to breakthrough with his first Cup victory. Staying with the family theme, MySportsbook.com lists 2005 Rookie of the Year Kyle Busch at 14/1 to succeed big brother Kurt’s 2004 NASCAR title. While Kasey Kahne was the final driver to qualify for the Chase with a third place finish last week, the oddsmakers give him a fighting chance at 10/1 mainly due to several mile-and-a-half tracks remaining on the schedule. Despite going winless on the NASCAR circuit this season, Jeff Burton enters the Chase at 5/1 to capture the Cup title. Meanwhile, rookie Denny Hamlin is 4/1 to win the championship, while veteran driver Mark Martin enters the Chase for the Cup as a 15/1 long shot to win his first NASCAR title in his 24th and final season. MySportsbook.com will offer comprehensive Nascar betting lines on every race remaining on the Nextel Cup series including driver match-ups, props and odds to win each race. For a complete list of NASCAR odds, please visit www.MySportsbook.com. To visit this online sportsbook got to MySportsbook.com for all your Sportsbook accepts US credit cards needs. |
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